FXUS64 KFWD 182014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
314 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

/Tonight and Tuesday/

A quiet weather pattern continues into Tuesday, as we continue
right underneath a convergent split flow within the mid-upper
levels. A shortwave is expected to lift east out of Northern
Mexico and the Big Bend and across Central/S-Central Texas through
Tuesday morning, before shifting east over the Northern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday afternoon. The only repercussion from this system
will be an increase of mid-high level clouds above 12,000 feet, as
the environmental layer below will very dry. This disturbance and
associated cloud cover should have little in the way of inhibiting
any warm up on Tuesday, as it departs away from the area after
midday. After lows in the 40s, I chose to lean toward warmer
guidance considering surface dew points remaining in the 30s and
the ability of plentiful sunshine to work upon the expected
dry airmass below. Much of the area could impinge on the 70 degree
mark, while wherever elevated cloudiness lingers, slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid-upper 60s will likely prevail during the
afternoon hours.



/Tuesday Night through Monday/

A rather sharp, positively-tilted shortwave will be dropping
through the Central Great Plains Tuesday night. This feature will
help send a weak cold front south of the Red River by Wednesday
morning, with an associated north wind shift pressing through our
entire CWA during the afternoon hours. A rather muted mass
response ahead of this shortwave will keep low-level wind speeds
fairly weak, greatly limiting the amount of poleward moisture
transport into the region ahead of the aformentioned cold front.
In addition, the vast majority of mid-level DCVA-related ascent
and height falls will remain displaced immediately to our north
and east through the day on Wednesday. As a result, continue to
think the prospects for any precipitation remain low and confined
primary to locales north of I-20. We`ll show some 10-20% chances
for showers Wednesday morning, and even that may be a bit
generous. High temperatures will range from near 60 across our
northern zones, to the upper 60s/lower 70s across Central Texas.

Any cold advection behind this front will be fleeting, such that
temperatures on Thursday should manage to warm back into the upper
60s/near 70 degree area-wide.

The primary focus during the extended portion of the forecast
continues to be on a series of weather systems which will bring a
couple of chances of showers and thunderstorms to North and
Central Texas into early next week. A rather amplified split-flow
pattern will be in place at the end of the this week with a
pretty well established omega block in place. Somewhat
unsurprisingly, global guidance continues to slow the progression
of the pertinent upper-lows/PV anomalies over the Great Basin as
they encounter lingering shortwave ridging across the central US
on Friday and into Saturday. As a result, we`ve continued to trim
back our PoP forecast on Friday and have moved any low (20-40%)
chances west of the I-35 corridor through the daylight hours.

It looks like shower and embedded thunderstorm chances will
finally tick upwards late Friday night and into Saturday morning
west of I-35, with the highest rain chances developing area-wide
on Saturday afternoon and evening. Marginal thermodynamic
profiles through this period look to greatly limit any available
instability to a few hundred J/kg (slightly higher with the more
amplified ECMWF). As a result, I`ve limited the thunder wording to
isolated in the worded forecast through Saturday night for all of
North and Central.

The forecast by Sunday becomes a bit more unclear. The ECMWF
continues to drop an additional shortwave into the broadly
cyclonic mid-level flow which initiates another wave of showers
and thunderstorms along a dryline to our west. The GFS/CMC hold
any of this additional mid-level energy back until Monday-Tuesday.
Since it`s clear there will be a couple of mid-level
perturbations lingering behind the initial Saturday system, we`ll
hold onto some low grade PoPs into Sunday and into Monday. The
threat for strong-severe storms continues to look pretty low this
weekend due to the aformentioned lack of more appreciable
instability, but we`ll obviously continue to monitor trends in
forecast guidance this week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1240 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019/
/18z Tafs/

VFR conditions will continue at the DFW Metroplex and Waco
terminals over the next 24 to 30 hours. Winds will gradually
become southeasterly this afternoon and then southerly by the end
of period. Wind speeds on average will be around 5 to 6 knots.
Only some passing high level clouds are expected.


Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  70  49  66  43 /   0   0   0  10   0
Waco                45  68  46  70  44 /   0   0   0  10   0
Paris               45  67  46  62  40 /   0   0   0  20   5
Denton              44  69  47  64  41 /   0   0   0  20   5
McKinney            44  68  47  64  41 /   0   0   0  20   5
Dallas              49  71  49  68  44 /   0   0   0  10   0
Terrell             46  69  47  67  42 /   0   0   0  10   0
Corsicana           47  69  47  69  43 /   0   0   0  10   0
Temple              44  68  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       43  69  46  64  40 /   0   0   0  10   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion