387
FXUS64 KFWD 180027 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
727 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019


.AVIATION...
/00 UTC TAF Cycle/

Concerns---MVFR potential at Waco on Thursday morning. Low MVFR
threat at DAL and GKY.

VFR will persist through the remainder of today and into most of
the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. Thereafter, patchy MVFR stratus
will likely lift north and eastward out of the Hill Country
towards the I-35 corridor. This stratus will invade Waco Regional
Airport around 1100 UTC with cigs initially around FL025. Similar
to this morning, cigs will briefly fall below FL020 for a few
hours with VFR expected around 1600 UTC. Veering low level flow
should mean that MVFR stratus stays largely to the south and east
of the Metroplex TAF sites, but trends will be monitored in newly
arriving model guidance to see if a mention of MVFR stratus is
required for DAL and GKY. Otherwise, south winds of 10 to 15 knots
will return Thursday morning and into the afternoon with VFR CU
around FL050-FL060.

Bain

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the low to mid 90s
across North and Central Texas, with heat index values mostly in
the upper 90s to a few sites reporting near 106 degrees. Breezy
southerly winds provided sufficient daytime mixing, and observed
dew points are a few degrees lower than Tuesday, ranging from the
upper 60s to low 70s. GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals some cloud
cover across Central Texas, which has also aided in maintaining
temperatures in the mid 90s. The combination of breezy winds and
slight uptick in cloud cover has helped alleviate us from the very
hot and humid conditions experienced yesterday. A few sea breeze
showers and thunderstorms are also visible along the Gulf Coast,
but this activity should remain southeast of our region.
Otherwise, the Heat Advisory remains on track to expire this
evening.

Tranquil and mild conditions are expected across the region
tonight as mid-level ridging persists across the southern US.
While mostly clear skies are expected across North Texas overnight,
a low-level jet will ensue and result in partly cloudy skies
across Central Texas by daybreak. Lows will range from the mid to
upper 70s with southerly winds decreasing to around 10 mph.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/
/Thursday through Next Week/

A fairly active storm track will continue across the northern
part of the country as an east-west elongated ridge remains in
place across the southern half. A slight weakness in the ridge
continues to be advertised by guidance for tomorrow and Friday,
though it will be of little consequence as hot and muggy
conditions will persist through the weekend. The only possible
result will be a slight decrease in heat indices, which may be
enough to back off the Heat Advisory for a few days. In fact, most
locations have not reached criteria as of this afternoon, and with
similar conditions expected the next couple of days, the current
plan is to let the advisory expire this evening. Also, a narrow
pressure gradient will allow the 15-20 MPH southerly winds to
continue for the next few days, which can also help mitigate the
oppressiveness of the summer heat.

A shortwave will drop southeast across the Great Lakes region on
Monday, which will help deepen a trough across the eastern CONUS
during the first half of next week. This will occur in conjunction
with a retrograding and strengthening ridge over the Rockies,
producing unseasonably strong north flow aloft across Texas and
the Southern Plains. Models are already coming into better
agreement with regard to the timing of the front, bringing it
through the area Monday night into Tuesday. There are still some
questions regarding the amount of available moisture and the
overall strength of the forcing for ascent, but there is enough
confidence to at least include chance to slight chance POPs across
the area for the late Monday and Tuesday period. Severe weather
is unlikely, but strong wind gusts will be a concern given the hot
pre-frontal environment. Speaking of which, we will need to keep
an eye on high temperatures for Monday, as frontal compression may
allow temps to soar into triple digits ahead of the boundary in a
few locations.

Starting Tuesday and continuing through the end of next week,
will stick to a below-normal temperature forecast (highs in the
low 90s and lows around 70). Its possible that temperatures may
be adjusted downward for the overnight periods depending on the
post-frontal dewpoints, but climatology suggests not getting too
carried away this time of year. The ridge will attempt to nose its
way eastward again during the second half of next week, which
means a warming trend is likely. However, a persistent upper
trough to our east will keep north flow in place, which will
likely prevent temperatures from climbing back to above-normal
values.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  93  75  93  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              77  97  78  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77  96  77  96  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  98  78  98  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  96  78  96  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           77  95  75  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       76  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/79

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion